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SUPER TUESDAY - February 5, 2008

Fallout - Causes Dropout - (02-07-08) Romney withdraws, says he wants to save the party from a bitter conservative-moderate battle, Christian right poster boy, Mike Huckabee, expected to stay in race and get most of conservative votes instead of McCain, GOP primary fight far from over. Democratic race "tight as a tick" as they say in Oklahoma. Obama does not want to debate Hillary anymore, New Mexico battle still not over as provisional ballots are now being counted and discounted; money wars, Obama gets 7 million in two days, Hillary says she got 4 million yesterday.   

 

(02-07-08) TWO DAYS LATER and all the votes are not counted, but we are getting close -

Close is the word and New Mexico is an example of the confusion and just how tight the race really is between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination for President.  Hillary will win New Mexico but barely. Still one precinct has not reported which is pretty hard to believe in this day of instant communications. Officials say they were delayed in the Caucus ballot totals because of provisional ballots. It appears with only one precinct not reporting, Obama cannot overtake the Clinton lead of close to 1100 hundred votes.  The totals are Clinton - 67,921 and Obama - 66,829  (source Albuquerque Journal)
 
In Missouri, Obama beat Clinton by 10,479 votes out of more than 820,000 cast in the Democratic primary, a 1.2 percent margin, according to unofficial final returns provided by the Secretary of State’s office. The Democrats do not have a monopoly on close races for Tuesday night however, for instance in Missouri, McCain beat Huckabee by 8,546 votes out of more than 580,000, a margin of 1.5 percent.
 
Meanwhile our election consultant MA reports from the Obama camp that he does not want to debate Hillary any more. One of the higher ranking members of the Obama team said " why debate with the devil." The feeling in the Obama ranks is that most of their voters will not vote for Hillary in a general election. Obama does have a fast track on financial support, he has raised over 7 million dollars since Tuesday night mostly on the internet.
 
It is unclear what will happen to the CNN debate scheduled in late February if Obama really means "no debates." It is generally accepted that Obama is a better communicator in speech giving than Hillary but she seems to hold her own against him in one on one debates.

Delegate Estimates as of 8 PM, Eastern (2-06-08).
Figures courtesy of www.cbsnews.com

There were 1,678 delegates at stake on Tuesday — that's more than three-quarters of the 2,025 votes needed for the nomination. Note: Democratic totals compiled by Jerry Pippin.com  
 
Close races with all but four precincts reporting - Obama leads with a popular vote total of less than 100 votes over Hillary.  However Hillary will get 13 delegates and Obama 12 delegates
In Missouri, absentee ballots saved the day for Obama as he won the popular vote by about 10,000 votes over Hillary however Hillary got 15 delegates and Obama 6.

Super Tuesday results-
total Delegates:   
Democrats | 2,025 Needed to Clinch
CLINTON 715 74 delegates
OBAMA 715 62 delegates
EDWARDS
26
 
Republicans | 1,191 Needed to Clinch
MCCAIN 677 48 delegates
ROMNEY 152 12 delegates
HUCKABEE 159 12 delegates

 

   CLICK HERE for Election 2008 archived coverage and background material.

 

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  APPLES AND ORANGES - DELEGATES PLEDGED BY LAW AND DELEGATES PLEDGED BY HONOR  
Obama says  he has 845 - and Hillary 836 delegates, and that he is leading overall in the race for pledged delegates, 908-884. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination.  
Hillary's version is Clinton leads, 974-906. If super-delegates are removed from the equation, Obama leads, 778-763.
 
Note- Super Delegates are Party regulars who are not bound by caucus or primary results and may change their vote from ballot to ballot.

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